Monday, December 6, 2010

The Creation of a Dynasty: Egypt and Mubarak

Elections have just been held in Egypt, taking place last week. The results were a foregone conclusion, with the party of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak winning a whopping 97% of of the seats in parliament. Those few who hoped that the election would open up the country to a more free democratic political process  have been sorely disappointed.

Egypt's political history in the first half of the 20th century was dominated by British influence. The Suez Canal was regarded as an essential route to India - the jewel of the British Empire - and control of Egypt was seen by the British government as essential to the defense of India.

In 1952, a coup by several army officers toppled the regime of King Farouk, who was supported by Britain. A republic was established, and elections held. The fledgling democracy did not last long, however, as social and economic tensions led to crises that the government proved ill equipped to solve. Another coup brought the regime of Colonel Nasser to power. He ruled until his death in 1970; his government was a thinly disguised military dictatorship. His successor, Anwar Sadat, ruled in much the same fashion until he was assassinated in 1981. Since then, Hosni Mubarak, the current President of Egypt, has been in control.

Now aging, he is seeking to place his son in the Presidency. While democracy has never been the rule in Egypt since Nasser's seizure of power, the succession of Mubarak's son would create a dynasty, returning the country to a state of monarchy for the first time in nearly 60 years.

The developments place the United States and the administration of President Obama in a difficult situation; Egypt is an important ally in the region, and receives billions of dollars in foreign aide each year, including military aide. The accusations of widespread ballot stuffing and election fraud cast the United States' mission of spreading democracy in a hypocritical light, making it more difficult for the US to pressure other repressive governments to open up to a more democratic process.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

The Cedar Revolution: Syria and Lebanon

Following World War I, the territories now occupied by Lebanon and Syria were taken from the defunct Ottoman Empire and placed under French control as League of Nations Mandates. In actuality, they were treated as colonies by France, and remained so until after World War II, when the two nations gained independence. The larger of the two, Syria came to dominate Lebanon, especially after the creation of Israel in 1948.

In successive wars - 1948, 1967, and 1973 - Israel defeated Syria and her Arab allies. As a result, Syria changed policies and began using proxy organizations based in Lebanon to attack Israel rather than risk open war. In the late 70s, Syria began financing the militant group Hizbullah, which attacked Israel using rockets and suicide bombers from its bases in southern Lebanon. Syria installed leaders sympathetic to its cause in Lebanon, and those who resisted or protested Syrian control of Lebanon became victims of Syrian violence, often at the hands of Hizbullah thugs.

In 1982, Israel responded to Hizbullah provocations by invading Lebanon. Under the leadership of Ariel Sharon - then Defense Minister in Israel - the IDF entered Beirut and deposed the Lebanese government, installing leaders sympathetic to their cause and opposed to Syria. While there, the IDF used local pro-Israeli thugs to perpetrate massacres of Palestinians in refugee camps near Beirut.

Hizbullah resistance took a heavy toll on the Israeli military, however, and they were soon obliged to retreat unilaterally, leaving Hizbullah and Syria once again in control of Lebanon.

In February 2005, Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was assassinated when his motorcade was destroyed by a bomb estimated at over 2,000 lbs of TNT parked in a truck. The attack was widely believed to be a Syrian-ordered assassination to silence Hariri, who opposed Syrian control of Lebanon. The assassination sparked nation wide protests, with an estimated 500,000 civilians marching in the streets of Beirut. the Syrian army - which had occupied Lebanon for years - was forced to withdraw, and the pro-Syrian Lebanese government resigned.

Known as the Cedar Revolution, the popular uprising led to the hope that Lebanon would enter a period of greater political independence and openness. The period of hope was marred, however, by a month-long conflict the next year between Hizbullah and Israel in which Israeli airstrikes inflicted enormous damage on the Lebanese civilian infrastructure and killed an estimated 1,200 Lebanese civilians.

The international UN-led investigation into the assassination of Hariri is about to release an indictment of the guilty parties at the time of this writing. Lebanon is in crisis over the upcoming decision, as it is widely believed that Hizbullah leaders will be implicated; the resulting struggle to prosecute any indicted militants could plunge the country into civil war, as Syria is adamant that Hizbullah remain in southern Lebanon, and many elements in the Lebanese establishment are sympathetic to the organization's cause.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

The Six Day War

By 1967, the state of Israel had been in existence for nearly twenty years. The violence of Israel's creation, and the animosity it created between it and its neighbors in the region, had remained just below the surface. In fact, Israel had had invaded Egypt (with the support of the British and French) in 1955 to prevent the Egyptians from nationalizing the Suez Canal. Though unsuccessful, the adventure proved how volatile and violent the region could be.

Though divided by competition and disagreement on many issues, all of Israel's neighbors - Egypt, Jordan and Syria (Lebanon remained politically less involved in the region's conflicts than its neighbors until the 1980s) were united in their desire to restore Palestine to the Palestinians, and erase what they saw as an illegitimate Zionist state from the map. While avoiding direct military confrontation, the rhetoric of the three states' leaders was often inflammatory.

By the summer of 1967, the Israeli military and political leadership was convinced that the Arab states (Egypt, Syria, Jordan) were preparing for an imminent attack, whose goal was nothing other than the eradication of the Jewish state. Since Israel is very small territorially, its leadership decided that its only real hope of survival was a pre-emptive strike, destroying the Arab armies before they had a chance to drive the Israelis "into the sea."

As a result, on the morning of June 5, 1967, the Israeli Air Force initiated hostilities by attacking the Egyptian Air Force as it sat on the ground. The assault was devastating: nearly the entire Egyptian Air Force was destroyed that morning. Following the air assault, the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) invaded the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip (Egyptian territory), the Golan Heights (Syrian territory), and the West Bank (Jordanian territory). The Arab armies were defeated soundly on all fronts, and within 6 days all the above mentioned territories were in Israeli control. With the exception of the Sinai - which Israel returned to Egypt in return for a peace treaty and recognition of the state of Israel by the Egyptian president - Israel still controls these territories to this day.

This war was extremely influential because it defined the current debate and dialogue between Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) over the possibility of a future Palestinian state. The PA claims all of the West Bank and Gaza (the pre-1967 borders) as the the boundaries of the Palestinian state. Israel is reluctant to return the territory because it includes part of Jerusalem, and because thousands of Jewish settlers moved into the West Bank after the war.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

1938: the death of Turkey's founding father

On November 10, 1938, Mustafa Kemal - the founder of modern Turkey and the first president of the Turkish Republic - died. He left a legacy, however, that endures to this day; his impact and influence on modern Turkey are difficult to overstate. His people endearingly call him "Ataturk" - the father of the Turks.

Mustafa Kemal's legacy began at the end of World War I. With the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, Turkey was threatened with the prospect of colonization at the hands of England, France and Italy. Kemal - a general in the Ottoman army - rallied the Turks and defeated the imperialist powers, securing independence for his people and declaring the birth of the Turkish Republic from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire.

Having secured his country's future through military means, Kemal set aside his fatigues and became a statesman. Under his direction, the Turkish government passed and implemented a radical series of reforms, aimed at transforming the country into a modern, secular state modeled after the nation states of Western Europe. These reforms affected the daily lives of ordinary Turks in astonishing ways. One reform changed the weekend from Thursday-Friday (the Muslim day of worship is Friday) to Saturday-Sunday, in line with the Christian West. Another outlawed traditional dress and hats, mandating instead the adoption of Western style dress.

But not all reforms involved abandoning Ottoman-Turkish cultural traditions in favor of Western ones. Modern civil codes, economic reform (including industrialization), and political reform were also crucial to Mustafa Kemal's vision of a modern Turkish state. While his rule was autocratic and he wielded absolute power during his lifetime, Kemal viewed Turkey eventually developing into a vibrant democracy, one in which the Turkish people would carry on his vision of reform and modernization.

This transition began in 1950, twelve years after his death, when the first multi-party elections were held. The opposition party won handily - evidence that the elections were fair and free. Turkey's subsequent political history is far from smooth, marked by periods of violence and military intervention in politics. Today, however, Turkey's economy is five times that of Egypt, and its political system is still democratic - a testament to the enduring strength of Turkey's founding father.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Treaty of Lausanne and the Birth of a Democracy

In October of 1918 the First World War was nearing its end - and so was the Ottoman Empire. Allied troops occupied Istanbul, the capital, as well as several other cities and ports. Having allied itself with Germany and Austria during the War, the Ottoman Empire found itself at the mercy of the victorious Triple Entente (Britain, France and Italy) - who would soon dismember the empire and distribute its territories among themselves.

Founded in the 15th century in what is modern Turkey, the Ottoman Empire soon expanded to include most of the Middle East, as well as much of North Africa, the Balkans and South Eastern Europe. By the late 19th century, however, its glory days were long past, and other European powers dubbed it the sick man of Europe. The end of WWI was the coup de grace.

During the negotiations following the end of the war, the Allies decided to partition the Ottoman Empire's territories: what is now Israel-Palestine, Jordan and Iraq went to Britain; Syria, Lebanon, and Southeastern Turkey were to go to France; Italy was to have Southern and Southwestern Turkey, and Greece and Armenia were given pieces of the pie as well. With their capital occupied by foreign troops, the Ottoman government had no choice but to accept. The Treaty (known as the Treaty of Sevres) was ratified by the Ottoman government.

In Ankara, however, a Turkish nationalist movement had formed around the Turkish army, under the leadership of General Mustafa Kemal. The nationalists refused to accept the Treaty of Sevres; they were horrified at the prospect of Turkey becoming merely another colony of Britain and France. In addition, they refused to cede territory to Greece or Armenia.

In order to enforce the Treaty of Sevres, the allies decided to use force. The British held Istanbul, the French attacked from the south east, and - under cover from British and French warships - the Greeks landed and attacked from the west. Known in Turkey as the War of Independence, this conflict began in 1919 and ended four years later in 1923 in a stunning Turkish victory. With all their enemies driven from Turkish soil, a new treaty was negotiated.

This new treaty - the Treaty of Lausanne - resulted in the creation of the modern state of Turkey. Mustafa Kemal became its first leader, and set the nation on a path towards democracy - a path it still follows today. As of the writing of this article, Turkey is the only democracy in the Middle East - and the only Middle Eastern country to have successfully resisted colonization by Western Europe.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

The 1948 War and the Creation of Israel

The history of the 1948 Arab-Israeli War dates back to at least the late 19th century and the beginnings of the Zionist movement. In response to intense persecution in Eastern Europe, Russia and elsewhere, some Jews began to speak of the need for a homeland for the Jewish people. At the First Zionist Congress, held in Basel, Switzerland in 1897 the World Zionist Organization was created, and prominent Zionist leaders, such as Theodore Herzl, proposed a return to the land of Palestine, the Biblical Jewish homeland. Negotiations with the Ottoman Empire, however, proved unsuccessful. As a result, the WZO opted for small-scale immigration to Palestine.

This policy intensified after World War I, when the British took control of Palestine from the Ottomans. The famous Balfour Declaration, issued by British Foreign Secretary Lord Balfour, proclaimed British support for the Zionist goal of a Jewish national home in Palestine; as a direct result, Jewish immigration to Palestine increased dramatically throughout the first half of the 20th century. After World War II and systematic murder of approximately six million Jews in Europe at the hands of Nazi Germany, both immigration to Palestine and international support for the creation of a Jewish national homeland surged to their highest levels.

Meanwhile, the influx of hundreds of thousands of Jews caused increasingly heated friction with the native population of Arabs. Attempts by the British to mediate the two factions failed, as did their attempts to limit Jewish immigration. Finally, the British gave up and turned the territory over to the United Nations, which issued a partition plan for the territory - essentially dividing it into a Jewish state and an Arab state. The Arabs rejected this plan, saying it gave far too much land to the Jewish state, given their respective populations. The Zionists, however, responded by declaring the creation of the state of Israel on May 14, 1948.

War promptly ensued, with armies from the neighboring Arab states of Egypt, Jordan and Syria invading the nascent state. The result was a resounding victory for Israel, and in midst  of the conflict nearly all of Israel's Arab inhabitants (~90%) either fled or were forcibly driven from their homes by the Israeli army. To this day, these refugees (several million in number) are unable to return to their homes; their fate is perhaps the most significant obstacle in the negotiation of a Palestinian-Israeli peace agreement. 

Sunday, October 31, 2010

Birth of the Islamic Republic

The Iranian Revolution

After a CIA backed coup ousted the country's Prime Minister, Mossadegh, in 1953 (for more info see the earlier post entitled "Iran Nationalizes the Oil Industry"), Iran was ruled by a monarch - Mohammed Reza Shah. Supported by the United States, the Shah's policy sought to modernize and westernize Iran, using the US and Europe as models.

Heavy handed rule

Unfortunately, the Shah also insisted on absolute control over all levers of power, and his rule became more and more dictatorial and repressive. Those who spoke out against him or his policies often suffered torture, imprisonment and execution at the hands of his notorious secret police. Among those who resisted him most virulently were the religious conservatives.

The Shiite Muslim clerics represented a force in Iranian society that the Shah had long sought to control, and whose power he had long sought to break. Many of his western inspired reforms in fact doubled as weapons to fight the religious clerics. The establishment of state run public schools, for example, was a carefully aimed blow at the ancient tradition of religious education in Iran.

Popular discontent

Not surprisingly, it was the religious scholars and their pupils who first began organized demonstrations against what they saw as a brutal, Western-backed regime intent on forcing foreign ideals and values on the country. Demonstrations began in earnest in 1978, and despite violent attempts by the government forces to disperse and suppress them, they grew in number throughout the year and into 1979. Before long, the Shah fled the country for fear of his life, and soon afterwards the regime collapsed.

The rise of the Islamic Republic

While the resistance to the Shah's regime began with the religious conservatives, it was by no means limited to them. Virtually every social group wanted the Shah's regime to end, and had a stake in the new government. The religious establishment quickly consolidated absolute control over the country, however, led by a religious leader, the Ayatollah Khomeini, newly returned from his exile in France.

Iran was proclaimed an Islamic Republic with Khomeini as its Supreme Leader. Western ideals and values were rejected, and the country's constitution and laws were said to be inspired by and based on the Koran and Islamic Law. While in practice many aspects of Iranian life introduced during the Shah years, such as cinema, popular music and Western clothing, remained popular, the official stance of the government was fiercely anti-Western, and in particular anti-US.