The Creation of a Dynasty: Egypt and Mubarak

Elections have just been held in Egypt, taking place last week. The results were a foregone conclusion, with the party of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak winning a whopping 97% of of the seats in parliament. Those few who hoped that the election would open up the country to a more free democratic political process  have been sorely disappointed.

Egypt's political history in the first half of the 20th century was dominated by British influence. The Suez Canal was regarded as an essential route to India - the jewel of the British Empire - and control of Egypt was seen by the British government as essential to the defense of India.

In 1952, a coup by several army officers toppled the regime of King Farouk, who was supported by Britain. A republic was established, and elections held. The fledgling democracy did not last long, however, as social and economic tensions led to crises that the government proved ill equipped to solve. Another coup brought the regime of Colonel Nasser to power. He ruled until his death in 1970; his government was a thinly disguised military dictatorship. His successor, Anwar Sadat, ruled in much the same fashion until he was assassinated in 1981. Since then, Hosni Mubarak, the current President of Egypt, has been in control.

Now aging, he is seeking to place his son in the Presidency. While democracy has never been the rule in Egypt since Nasser's seizure of power, the succession of Mubarak's son would create a dynasty, returning the country to a state of monarchy for the first time in nearly 60 years.

The developments place the United States and the administration of President Obama in a difficult situation; Egypt is an important ally in the region, and receives billions of dollars in foreign aide each year, including military aide. The accusations of widespread ballot stuffing and election fraud cast the United States' mission of spreading democracy in a hypocritical light, making it more difficult for the US to pressure other repressive governments to open up to a more democratic process.

The Cedar Revolution: Syria and Lebanon

Following World War I, the territories now occupied by Lebanon and Syria were taken from the defunct Ottoman Empire and placed under French control as League of Nations Mandates. In actuality, they were treated as colonies by France, and remained so until after World War II, when the two nations gained independence. The larger of the two, Syria came to dominate Lebanon, especially after the creation of Israel in 1948.

In successive wars - 1948, 1967, and 1973 - Israel defeated Syria and her Arab allies. As a result, Syria changed policies and began using proxy organizations based in Lebanon to attack Israel rather than risk open war. In the late 70s, Syria began financing the militant group Hizbullah, which attacked Israel using rockets and suicide bombers from its bases in southern Lebanon. Syria installed leaders sympathetic to its cause in Lebanon, and those who resisted or protested Syrian control of Lebanon became victims of Syrian violence, often at the hands of Hizbullah thugs.

In 1982, Israel responded to Hizbullah provocations by invading Lebanon. Under the leadership of Ariel Sharon - then Defense Minister in Israel - the IDF entered Beirut and deposed the Lebanese government, installing leaders sympathetic to their cause and opposed to Syria. While there, the IDF used local pro-Israeli thugs to perpetrate massacres of Palestinians in refugee camps near Beirut.

Hizbullah resistance took a heavy toll on the Israeli military, however, and they were soon obliged to retreat unilaterally, leaving Hizbullah and Syria once again in control of Lebanon.

In February 2005, Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was assassinated when his motorcade was destroyed by a bomb estimated at over 2,000 lbs of TNT parked in a truck. The attack was widely believed to be a Syrian-ordered assassination to silence Hariri, who opposed Syrian control of Lebanon. The assassination sparked nation wide protests, with an estimated 500,000 civilians marching in the streets of Beirut. the Syrian army - which had occupied Lebanon for years - was forced to withdraw, and the pro-Syrian Lebanese government resigned.

Known as the Cedar Revolution, the popular uprising led to the hope that Lebanon would enter a period of greater political independence and openness. The period of hope was marred, however, by a month-long conflict the next year between Hizbullah and Israel in which Israeli airstrikes inflicted enormous damage on the Lebanese civilian infrastructure and killed an estimated 1,200 Lebanese civilians.

The international UN-led investigation into the assassination of Hariri is about to release an indictment of the guilty parties at the time of this writing. Lebanon is in crisis over the upcoming decision, as it is widely believed that Hizbullah leaders will be implicated; the resulting struggle to prosecute any indicted militants could plunge the country into civil war, as Syria is adamant that Hizbullah remain in southern Lebanon, and many elements in the Lebanese establishment are sympathetic to the organization's cause.

The Six Day War

By 1967, the state of Israel had been in existence for nearly twenty years. The violence of Israel's creation, and the animosity it created between it and its neighbors in the region, had remained just below the surface. In fact, Israel had had invaded Egypt (with the support of the British and French) in 1955 to prevent the Egyptians from nationalizing the Suez Canal. Though unsuccessful, the adventure proved how volatile and violent the region could be.

Though divided by competition and disagreement on many issues, all of Israel's neighbors - Egypt, Jordan and Syria (Lebanon remained politically less involved in the region's conflicts than its neighbors until the 1980s) were united in their desire to restore Palestine to the Palestinians, and erase what they saw as an illegitimate Zionist state from the map. While avoiding direct military confrontation, the rhetoric of the three states' leaders was often inflammatory.

By the summer of 1967, the Israeli military and political leadership was convinced that the Arab states (Egypt, Syria, Jordan) were preparing for an imminent attack, whose goal was nothing other than the eradication of the Jewish state. Since Israel is very small territorially, its leadership decided that its only real hope of survival was a pre-emptive strike, destroying the Arab armies before they had a chance to drive the Israelis "into the sea."

As a result, on the morning of June 5, 1967, the Israeli Air Force initiated hostilities by attacking the Egyptian Air Force as it sat on the ground. The assault was devastating: nearly the entire Egyptian Air Force was destroyed that morning. Following the air assault, the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) invaded the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip (Egyptian territory), the Golan Heights (Syrian territory), and the West Bank (Jordanian territory). The Arab armies were defeated soundly on all fronts, and within 6 days all the above mentioned territories were in Israeli control. With the exception of the Sinai - which Israel returned to Egypt in return for a peace treaty and recognition of the state of Israel by the Egyptian president - Israel still controls these territories to this day.

This war was extremely influential because it defined the current debate and dialogue between Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) over the possibility of a future Palestinian state. The PA claims all of the West Bank and Gaza (the pre-1967 borders) as the the boundaries of the Palestinian state. Israel is reluctant to return the territory because it includes part of Jerusalem, and because thousands of Jewish settlers moved into the West Bank after the war.